Preliminary results on the simulation of the 1999 Orissa super cyclone using a GCM with a new boundary layer code

& bl 'kks/k&Ik= esa ,u- ,e- vkbZ- Vh- ,y- ifj;kstuk ds ,d Hkkx :Ik fy[ks x, u, ,- th- lh- dksM+ ¼uker% o"kkZ½ dk mi;ksx djrs gq, mM+hlk egkpØokr izfr:i.k ls izkIr fd, izkjfEHkd ifj.kkeksa dks izLrqr fd;k x;k gSA bZ- MCY;w- ,Q- Vh-&106 dh vkjfEHkd voLFkkvksa 26 vDrwcj] 1999 0000 ;w- ij vkjEHk gok >ksadsiu dkjd lfEefyr ekud eksuhu&vkscw[kkso ifjlhek Lrj dksM Vh&80 foHksnu o"kkZ daVªksy ju 78 fd-eh- xzhM varjky 120 LisDVªy ekWMl mUur {kSfrt vkSj eUn iouksa izkpyhdj.k vla[; o`f);ksa n’kkZrk gS% djus i'pkr~ vf/kdre =qfV 36 ?kaVksa vof/k 350 234 fd-eh-] 48 310 34 96 410 55 rd =qfV;ksa deh ikbZ xbZ blesa ;g lq>ko fn;k gS fd o`f) Js; i`"Bh; cyksa vkdyu cy vk?kw.kZ ¼VkdZ½ fufgr Hkwfedk izeq[k ;ksxnku gh tksfd fo’ks"k :i pØokrksa i`"B Hkwfe lacaf/kr gSa tgk¡ iousa rqyukRed gYdh gksrh fdarq ml {ks= fo|eku rFkk bldh Hkqtk ¼ewesaV vkeZ½ nksuksa vf/kd gSaA vk’p;Ztud mPprj }kjk iwokZuqekfur Hkh mRiUu gksrs jkspd ckr pØokr ekxZ U;wure vonkc ekM;wy dkj.k gqbZ cgqr iFk iwokZuqeku vU; Hkaoj ¶yDlksa ¼laos| m"ek] vknzZrk½ izHkko ewY;k¡du fy, fo’ys"k.k djuk vko’;d gSA
 We present here preliminary results from the simulation of Orissa super cyclone using a new AGCM code (named Varsha) written as part NMITLI project. The is initialized at UTC, October 1999, ECMWF T-106 initial conditions. control run made Varsha T-80 resolution with standard Monin-Obukhov boundary layer incorporating gustiness factor. With horizontal improved to spectral modes km grid spacing, and parameterization low winds, shows substantial improvements: maximum error reduced hr after initialization, hr, hr. It suggested that explanation for this improvement lies in estimation surface forces torque code. role particularly interesting major contribution it comes outer regions where winds are relatively but area on which force acts its moment arm both high. Intriguingly higher arise also predicted by An finding that, track minimum pressure, due greater module. Further analysis necessary assess effect other eddy fluxes (sensible heat, moisture) prediction.